This part caught my eye... "Even if there’s no realistic chance that anyone would be suicidal enough to start a nuclear war..."
I can't rate the chance, but there are situations in which this may become possible. Imagine that Kim Jong Un gets diagnosed with a terminal illness. His choice would then be....
1) To slowly die as a pathetic victim in a hospital bed as his cronies scheme to take his place....
OR:
2) He could choose to leave this Earth as the Heroic Leader who finally brought the evil American empire to it's knees.
It seems to me that we have two forms of protection against that kind of nuclear insanity. The first is that even with terminal illness, dictators have friends and family that they might prefer not to die in nuclear hellfire.
The second defense is that no one truly rules alone, and especially no one can launch nuclear weapons on their own. Such orders have to go down the chain of command and actually be carried out. Those surrounding the leader would be in a position in which their survival depended on successfully mounting a coup. If they remain loyal, they and their families die in nuclear war. If they attempt a putsch, there’s a chance at survival. What’s more, they know everyone else is in the same position, so there’s little chance of betrayal and an abundance of allies.
Realistically, if a leader knows they’re on their way out, they’re likely to do something similar to Nazarbayev In Kazakhstan and pick a successor, before claiming honors and going into retirement.
This part caught my eye... "Even if there’s no realistic chance that anyone would be suicidal enough to start a nuclear war..."
I can't rate the chance, but there are situations in which this may become possible. Imagine that Kim Jong Un gets diagnosed with a terminal illness. His choice would then be....
1) To slowly die as a pathetic victim in a hospital bed as his cronies scheme to take his place....
OR:
2) He could choose to leave this Earth as the Heroic Leader who finally brought the evil American empire to it's knees.
To a psychopath only one life matters, their own.
It seems to me that we have two forms of protection against that kind of nuclear insanity. The first is that even with terminal illness, dictators have friends and family that they might prefer not to die in nuclear hellfire.
The second defense is that no one truly rules alone, and especially no one can launch nuclear weapons on their own. Such orders have to go down the chain of command and actually be carried out. Those surrounding the leader would be in a position in which their survival depended on successfully mounting a coup. If they remain loyal, they and their families die in nuclear war. If they attempt a putsch, there’s a chance at survival. What’s more, they know everyone else is in the same position, so there’s little chance of betrayal and an abundance of allies.
Realistically, if a leader knows they’re on their way out, they’re likely to do something similar to Nazarbayev In Kazakhstan and pick a successor, before claiming honors and going into retirement.
That's a hopeful post, thanks for that. You make good points, which would indeed probably work most of the time.
On the other side of the coin, if we keep nukes around forever, sooner or later there will likely arise some one instance when it doesn't work.