Good article! I am curious - it seems that Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil count are something that the Western powers would be unwilling to countenance, and this has led them to avoid supplying weapons capable of striking Russian targets. With Ukraine using indigenous resources to attack Russian targets, however, do you think by the logic of "boiling the frog" it will become feasible for the US to supply (as an example) ATACMS?
The West does not want the Russians to have the propaganda opportunity that Western weapons striking Russian soil would provide. ATACMS is to some extent an exception to the "boiling the frog" logic in that the fear is not that Russia will provoke a crisis because they are being supplied, but that their actual use in striking targets on Russia may lead to Russia believing it is under threat of imminent nuclear attack. This is because Russia's early warning system is weak, outdated, and reliant on dual-use equipment that the Ukrainians might target.
In my opinion, the main factor in the decision for the US to supply (or not supply) ATACMS is the level of trust it has in Ukraine not to conduct deep strikes using ATACMS on Russian territory.
Good article! I am curious - it seems that Ukrainian attacks on Russian soil count are something that the Western powers would be unwilling to countenance, and this has led them to avoid supplying weapons capable of striking Russian targets. With Ukraine using indigenous resources to attack Russian targets, however, do you think by the logic of "boiling the frog" it will become feasible for the US to supply (as an example) ATACMS?
The West does not want the Russians to have the propaganda opportunity that Western weapons striking Russian soil would provide. ATACMS is to some extent an exception to the "boiling the frog" logic in that the fear is not that Russia will provoke a crisis because they are being supplied, but that their actual use in striking targets on Russia may lead to Russia believing it is under threat of imminent nuclear attack. This is because Russia's early warning system is weak, outdated, and reliant on dual-use equipment that the Ukrainians might target.
In my opinion, the main factor in the decision for the US to supply (or not supply) ATACMS is the level of trust it has in Ukraine not to conduct deep strikes using ATACMS on Russian territory.