I feel that for Iran, you are neglecting the domestic American variable. If they are able to inflict a greater degree of cost upon the MAGA movement, they may succeed in the short term in giving the Democrats control of both houses of Congress. In the long term, they could potentially cause enough pain that a Democrat is elected President, though backlash to MAGA was already brewing. The Democratic Party was already more dovish towards Iran, especially on it's left flank. A progressive President in particular would cut off arms sales to Israel, and maybe even sanction the country along with the Gulf States, limiting thier ability to attack Iran, and giving the Islamic Republic the time it needs to rebuild its networks. Some of the more radicalized anti-imperialist and anti Zionist elements of the left, such as the influential streamer Hassan Piker, even see Iran as an ally. At the very least, this sentiment would restrain what sort of actions against Iran a democratic administration would allow.
I feel that for Iran, you are neglecting the domestic American variable. If they are able to inflict a greater degree of cost upon the MAGA movement, they may succeed in the short term in giving the Democrats control of both houses of Congress. In the long term, they could potentially cause enough pain that a Democrat is elected President, though backlash to MAGA was already brewing. The Democratic Party was already more dovish towards Iran, especially on it's left flank. A progressive President in particular would cut off arms sales to Israel, and maybe even sanction the country along with the Gulf States, limiting thier ability to attack Iran, and giving the Islamic Republic the time it needs to rebuild its networks. Some of the more radicalized anti-imperialist and anti Zionist elements of the left, such as the influential streamer Hassan Piker, even see Iran as an ally. At the very least, this sentiment would restrain what sort of actions against Iran a democratic administration would allow.