I have also been worried about an over-correction with many writers recently citing the “short war myth.” However, when discussing that myth, writers do not recognize that it is generally believed by the country initiating a war. An aggressor risks war out of the belief that victory can be had at a reasonable cost. Rolling the iron dice sometimes does payoff as with Bismarck’s Wars, the Russo-Japanese War, the Battle of France, the Six-Day War, the Persian Gulf, the Russo-Georgian War, Crimea, and Nagorno-Karabakh. To deter an aggressor from believing that a war could be short, the defender needs to display readiness to prevail in a short war. In Taiwan and the Baltic, we need to display a capability to prevent a rapid fait accompli to deter Russian or Chinese dreams of a short war.
Hi Kiran to predict how a government will fight a war you have understand why it is fighting. From the Chinese point of view Taiwan is part of China and the fact that it is not ruled by the central government is result of the civil war which hasn't been completely resolved yet.
Think of the American civil war. If Brittain had decided to back Independance of the Confederate States Lincoln wouldn't have just thrown up his hands and said, "fair cop gov you won". Lincoln and the vast majority of the US government saw preserving the territorial integrity of the Union as incredibly important and were prepared to do just about anything to win.
For Xi and the government of China is the same. They see maintaining the territorial integrity of as incredibly important and they will do anything they can to prevent Taiwanese independence.
Whether a war over Taiwan lasts 1 week or 1 decade it will always end up in the US throwing in the towel because it is far more important for China than it is for the US.
National will is an important element, but it’s ultimately only one factor in determining capabilities. China maintains that Taiwan is a part of it, but has not been able to effect this. That they feel this way about Taiwan has not stopped them from de facto tolerating their independence for decades.
The value of Taiwan is clearly not infinite, nor is their victory inevitable, else they would have fought and won long ago.
A strategy of exhausting American political will would be difficult to implement due to geography. If the Americans are winning, they’ll be able to prevent China from being able to actually invade Taiwan. Whether the war goes on for one year or ten, there’s no reason the Americans would suddenly decide to give China what it could not take.
The inherent difficulty in amphibious landings means a long war would also allow Taiwan to make itself virtually impregnable.
I have also been worried about an over-correction with many writers recently citing the “short war myth.” However, when discussing that myth, writers do not recognize that it is generally believed by the country initiating a war. An aggressor risks war out of the belief that victory can be had at a reasonable cost. Rolling the iron dice sometimes does payoff as with Bismarck’s Wars, the Russo-Japanese War, the Battle of France, the Six-Day War, the Persian Gulf, the Russo-Georgian War, Crimea, and Nagorno-Karabakh. To deter an aggressor from believing that a war could be short, the defender needs to display readiness to prevail in a short war. In Taiwan and the Baltic, we need to display a capability to prevent a rapid fait accompli to deter Russian or Chinese dreams of a short war.
I discuss this more and the problems we have analyzing the character of war here: https://www.ausa.org/publications/a-problem-of-character
Nuke Taiwan to show China we mean business
Hi Kiran to predict how a government will fight a war you have understand why it is fighting. From the Chinese point of view Taiwan is part of China and the fact that it is not ruled by the central government is result of the civil war which hasn't been completely resolved yet.
Think of the American civil war. If Brittain had decided to back Independance of the Confederate States Lincoln wouldn't have just thrown up his hands and said, "fair cop gov you won". Lincoln and the vast majority of the US government saw preserving the territorial integrity of the Union as incredibly important and were prepared to do just about anything to win.
For Xi and the government of China is the same. They see maintaining the territorial integrity of as incredibly important and they will do anything they can to prevent Taiwanese independence.
Whether a war over Taiwan lasts 1 week or 1 decade it will always end up in the US throwing in the towel because it is far more important for China than it is for the US.
National will is an important element, but it’s ultimately only one factor in determining capabilities. China maintains that Taiwan is a part of it, but has not been able to effect this. That they feel this way about Taiwan has not stopped them from de facto tolerating their independence for decades.
The value of Taiwan is clearly not infinite, nor is their victory inevitable, else they would have fought and won long ago.
A strategy of exhausting American political will would be difficult to implement due to geography. If the Americans are winning, they’ll be able to prevent China from being able to actually invade Taiwan. Whether the war goes on for one year or ten, there’s no reason the Americans would suddenly decide to give China what it could not take.
The inherent difficulty in amphibious landings means a long war would also allow Taiwan to make itself virtually impregnable.